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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/Hanna
08L.HANNA AoI: SW of Cape Verde This one's near the caost, expected to follow the other two systems. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC) 95L. INVEST Part of this developed from the northwestern flank of the Cape Verde system. SHIPS predicts a hurricane but there's some model dissagreement. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :HWRF is actually predicting a cat. 2! 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:49, 23 August 2008 (UTC) ::Dropped to low-risk, but HWRF persists on bringing it to a hurricane and hitting Nova Scotia as a TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:55, 24 August 2008 (UTC) :::Back up to medium risk... --Patteroast 01:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Uh-oh. CMC predicts a cat. 3, GFDL a cat. 4, and HWRF a cat. 3 within 5 days! GFS is also scary, not intensity-wise but track-wise: stalling around the high coming off the coast and maybe hitting New York. If we have a cat. 2 or 3 hurricane AND a landfall near New York then there could be trouble. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:48, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :::::And most of the models predict it to recurve through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The only models that take it west are the ones that keep it weak. It might be a good idea for Bermuda to pay attention to it, but we shouldn't have to worry about it here in the states. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:34, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::NHC's got it up to high risk, it's on the danger graphic, AND there's a TCFA. Could be a depression before morning. --Patteroast 00:54, 28 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eight Showing up as 08L on NRL. No word yet from NHC, but judging by what they were saying about it earlier, I'd be very surprised if this is not indeed upgraded. --Patteroast 08:30, 28 August 2008 (UTC) :Confirmed by NHC. Forecast to become a hurricane heading towards the east coast... --Patteroast 08:52, 28 August 2008 (UTC) ::Still way too far to say it won't recurve, though. No?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 12:21, 28 August 2008 (UTC) :::Perhaps true. Navy/NRL has this labelled as 08L.HANNA; expect an upgrade in the next advisory. - Salak 13:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC) ::::I'm really not kidding this time, models predict a full-scale multi-system Fujiw***, which is the last thing we need with TWO potentially threatening systems on the loose. Hanna and the other systems could actually split the Bermuda high in half, which would be troublesome because the hurricanes would be dominating the Atlantic basin instead of a high. Several models predict a turn towards the ultra-warm south, which is reflected in the near-stalling of this system on the NHC forecast by day 5. This could indeed reach New York because the Bermuda high will be partly missing! I'll wait until the 11am advisory. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:14, 28 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hanna Already. At 11AM, advisory 2. Storm's Eye 14:48, 28 August 2008 (UTC) :Some models predict weakening as it stalls, but CMC strengthens it to a cat. 4 then pushes it toward Haiti O_O. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:27, 28 August 2008 (UTC) ::"ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE." And it's headed toward Florida. Great, that's wonderful. The news just keeps getting better and better doesn't it? Plus there's a strong tropical wave about to come off Africa and now a disturbed area in the Bay of Campeche. Just like Christmas, isn't it? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:09, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::I must say, every model run depicts something rather alarming. No, make that VERY alarming. CMC explodes it enough to wreak havoc wherever it hits, GFDL runs a cat. 4 toward Haiti, possibly TWICE, GFS makes it enter the Gulf and possibly hit the Atlantic seaboard after that, HWRF stalls it enough for the high to take it toward New York, mm5fsu-merge predicts explosion and stalling to rapid intensification, ngp explodes it (a true rarity for ngp), and ukmet runs a strong hurricane into the Gulf. Even NHC's track allows for rapid intensification and it could hit ANYWHERE. Not to mention all three American cities most volnerable to hurricanes. Uh-oh. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:34, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Beyong day 5, based on the current NHC forecast, I predict a TS landfall on Aklins Island on the 3rd, then a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua on the 4th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Port-de-Paix, Haiti on the 5th, then a cat. 2 landfall on Middle Caicos, Turks and Caicos on the 6th, then a cat. 3 landfall on Eleuthera Island, Bahamas on the 8th, then a cat. 4 landfall on Freeport City, Bahamas on the 9th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Sebastian, Florida on the 10th, then a cat. 3 landfall near Bayonne, New Jersey on the 14th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Bayonne, New Jersey on the 14th, then a TD landfall near Prince EdwardPoint, Ontario on the 15th. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:34, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::::10 landfalls Astro? Are you sure that's realistic? - Salak 20:56, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Not really. Either he's throwing darts, or gunning for the "Most Hyperbolic Forecasts of the Season" award. Albireo 21:22, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Uh-oh, the current track looks like it might enter the Gulf :S. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:29, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::What weird kind of projected path Hanna this follow, with some models crossing Cuba to the Carribbean Sea? -- 21:50, 29 August 2008 (UTC) And then it gets there and finds all the warm water's been pillaged. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:37, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :Either way, this could still be bad. NHC takes it into the Gulf, where it could interact with Gustav and cause HUGE complications. The entire US gulf and east coast is not safe, because models do very poorly on hurricane-hurricane interactions and stalling from high pressure. The scary thing is, GFS takes what looks like a cat. 4 onto St. Simmons Island, and NOGAPS takes the same cat. 4 and dumps it onto Miami. Remember the water in the Atlantic's pretty warm too, and even with Gustav the water could still be warm enough to support Hanna somewhat. By the way Sky, Dorian is a unisex name. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:45, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::One cataclysmic hurricane at a time, please. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:38, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :::Anyone who thinks they know exactly where Hanna is going right now is probably going to end up being wrong. Squarethecircle 03:00, 31 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Couldn't put it better myself. The models are pointing in pretty much every direction possible. - Salak 03:42, 31 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Some are suggesting a pass near NYC, especially GFS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:51, 31 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Well, at this point, I think Hanna could go almost anywhere between Heaven and Hell. I can't say I much care for where the forecast has it pointed right now though. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:42, 31 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Now forecast to go to Savannah. Expect that to change seventy times between now and it finally hitting land...if it doesn't just spin around on itself and head back out to sea. Silly Hanna.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:48, 1 September 2008 (UTC) Could bring heavy rain to southern Ontario Saturday evening. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:14, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :Wow, that forecast races it up the coast. The winds also jumped rather startlingly and I don't much like the idea of a hurricane hitting Savannah. Beautiful city, I've been there. The last time a hurricane directly made landfall in Georgia was David in 1979, crossing near uninhabited Ossabow Island just south of Savannah with 90 mph sustained winds. This has been a very active Cape Verde season. We've had Fay, Gus, Hanna, an impending Ike and now yet another Cape Verde disturbance. Wow. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:33, 1 September 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Hanna NHC have issued a special advisory. This season is heating up. Isfisk 18:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :Hmm, I really don't see why NHC is keeping it a cat. 1 all the way to the US. The water in between is plenty warm, and SHIPS and HWRF both predict a cat. 2, while GFDL predicts a cat. 4. Expected to make landfall in South Carolina but could have consequences for the entire Georgia coast. GFDL makes a cat. 3 landfall, while HWRF makes a landfall at cat. 2 near St. Simmons. The good news is, the water north of Cape Hatteras has cooled since August. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:58, 1 September 2008 (UTC) ::I must have angered the gods; they're sending all the hurricanes after me. I'm still in Atlanta by the way, tornadoes have popping up like daisies all over Mobile County and God knows I'm not driving in the dark when there's tornadoes around. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hanna (second time) Back down to a TS, expected to skirt the east coast overland, but GFDL sends a strong TS-remnant right into S. Ontario! 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:11, 2 September 2008 (UTC) :Yeah, Hanna got sheared to hell but NHC is still convinced that the conditions will get better. This one definately still bears watch. Hanna's kind of reminding me of Hurricane Gracie in 1959. Though I very much doubt Hanna will get anywhere near that strong, the track is very similar and Gracie was followed that year by Hurricane Hannah, which moved westward under a weaker subtropical ridge and then recurved as a major hurricane in the west Atlantic, eventually hitting the Azores as a Cat. 2. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:33, 3 September 2008 (UTC) ::NHC can't make up its mind about what Hanna will do. I particularly liked the one yesterday evening that had Tropical Storm Hanna reemerging in the Gulf of Saint-Lawrence and making TS-strength landfall on, of all places, the Quebec north coast (you know, where 65F is warm summer weather).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:04, 3 September 2008 (UTC) :::Hell, Hanna can't make up it's mind what it'll do. Hanna is a little stronger and actually moving(!!!), north as the case may be and NHC remains convinced that it will strike land as a hurricane. The track's shifted way north, too, to the Outer Banks (which may be the reason for the persistant intensity forecast) -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:21, 4 September 2008 (UTC) ::::Now the models are in almost perfect agreement on the track, and NHC is no longer expecting a hurricane, but hurricane watches are still out. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:54, 4 September 2008 (UTC) :::::TS watches are out for NYC, expected to hit the British Isles at TS strength. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:16, 5 September 2008 (UTC) ::::::Hanna gets the first autumn European windstorm, it seems. -- 21:08, 5 September 2008 (UTC) Looking at the latest forecast map...How many TS-strength landfall is that supposed to be, again? (I'm counting three-four in the US, and three in Canada...)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:39, 5 September 2008 (UTC) :Hanna is for all intents and purposes a hurricane right now and should be viewed as one. This is where NHC has frustrated me in the past. They did it with Gaston in '04, Cindy in '05, Ernesto in '06 and they're doing it now with Hanna; choosing the low side of the estimates and staying conservative (devoutly). The problem with doing that is that many people will underestimate the storm and not view it as a threat. I notice on the radar a little wiggle to the west. A South Carolina landfall is very possible, I'm thinking North Myrtle Beach, SC; Sunset Beach, NC and all points in between are likely landfall locations. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:36, 6 September 2008 (UTC) ::Hanna now less than an hour away from landfall near North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, from what I see on Wilmington radar. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:58, 6 September 2008 (UTC) Extra-Tropical Storm Hanna Last advisory issued.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:42, 7 September 2008 (UTC) :Time to archive her,then?--L.E./ 16:00, 7 September 2008 (UTC) ::Just because she's extratropical doesn't mean he's done. The CHC is still monitoring her and it could bring some very heavy rain to Atlantic Canada in a few hours. It's merged with the remnants of Gustav so better to archive that first. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:04, 7 September 2008 (UTC) :::And now?--L.E./ 16:40, 10 September 2008 (UTC)